Week 13 Fantasy Football Analysis

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Generated: 2025-11-28 21:00

Win Probability: 83.1% | Expected Margin: +31.9 pts

Strong Week 13 matchup against a division rival. Our team has significant projected advantages across multiple positions, particularly at WR where Jaxon Smith-Njigba (historic pace) and Rashee Rice (elite matchup vs Dallas) lead the way. The Monte Carlo simulation shows 83% win probability with an expected margin of nearly 32 points.

Key Storylines:
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba continues record-breaking pace (1,313 yds, on track for 2,000+)
- Rashee Rice faces NFL's worst pass defense (Dallas allows 18 WR TDs)
- Bucky Irving returns from 7-game injury absence vs vulnerable ARI rush D
- Tetairoa McMillan emerging as CAR WR1 (748 yds, 54 rec through 11 games)

Recommended Starting Lineup

Position Player Team Opponent ESPN Proj LLM Proj XGB Boom Conf Notes
QB Jacoby Brissett ARI @ TB 17.3 23.8 19.5% HIGH 18+ pts in all 5 starts, TB allows 5th most QB FPTS
RB Bucky Irving TB vs ARI 11.8 15.3 9.5% MEDIUM Returns from injury, ARI allows 142 rush yds/game
RB Tyjae Spears TEN vs JAX 9.9 8.0 13.2% LOW 50% snap share, light rain expected
WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA vs MIN 21.9 34.3 50.0% HIGH WR1 overall, 11 straight 75+ yd games, MIN weak secondary
WR Rashee Rice KC @ DAL 18.1 25.9 13.2% HIGH 20%+ target share, DAL worst vs WR (18 TDs allowed)
TE Juwan Johnson NO @ MIA 8.7 14.0 21.0% MEDIUM 5 straight games 10+ FPTS, MIA 4th worst vs TE
FLEX Tetairoa McMillan CAR vs LAR 13.2 16.5 21.1% MEDIUM CAR WR1, 22% target share, 10-pt underdog limits ceiling
K Jason Myers SEA vs MIN 8.5 11.5 12.1% MEDIUM SEA -11.5 favorites, high FG opportunities
D/ST Rams D/ST LAR @ CAR 7.5 8.9 18.1% HIGH 10-pt favorites, CAR implied total 17.25

Total ESPN Projection: 128.2 pts
Total LLM Projection: 163.1 pts

XGBoost Boom/Bust Analysis

The XGBoost model (v13) provides probability-based boom/bust predictions using historical data and weekly context:

Player Position XGB Boom XGB Bust Confidence Decision
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR 50.0% 14.0% HIGH High boom - Start with confidence
Jordan Love QB 28.4% 20.9% MEDIUM Moderate upside, bench for Brissett
Marvin Harrison Jr. WR 25.7% 18.2% MEDIUM Injured - avoid
Keenan Allen WR 25.3% 24.3% MEDIUM Bench - solid floor, limited upside
Evan Engram TE 25.0% 25.6% MEDIUM Bench behind Juwan
Tetairoa McMillan WR 21.1% 18.1% HIGH Start - CAR WR1, high target share
Juwan Johnson TE 21.0% 25.0% HIGH Start - hot streak + matchup
Jameson Williams WR 20.6% 20.3% MEDIUM Boom/bust - bench
Jacoby Brissett QB 19.5% 43.3% MEDIUM Start - 5-game hot streak
Rams D/ST D/ST 18.1% 32.9% MEDIUM Start - elite matchup
Rashee Rice WR 13.2% 27.0% HIGH Start - elite opportunity
Tyjae Spears RB 13.2% 33.1% HIGH Start - best available
Bucky Irving RB 9.5% 54.5% HIGH High bust risk - injury return
Omarion Hampton RB 8.3% 54.4% MEDIUM IR - unavailable

High Boom Targets: JSN (50.0%)
High Bust Risks: Bucky Irving (54.5%), Omarion Hampton (54.4%)

QB Decision: Jacoby Brissett vs Jordan Love

Jacoby Brissett (ARI @ TB, Sun 1:00 PM)

  • ESPN Projection (IBM watsonx): 17.3 pts
  • LLM Projection (Claude Opus 4.5): 23.8 pts (HIGH confidence)
  • XGBoost: 19.5% boom, 43.3% bust
  • Recommendation: START

LLM Reasoning:
- 5 consecutive games of 18+ fantasy points since becoming starter
- 1,887 passing yards in 6 games (most by any QB in 6-game span)
- Tampa Bay allows 5th most fantasy points to QBs
- Expert consensus: QB8 for week
- Pass-heavy Cardinals offense with no running game

Boom/Bust Signals:
- HOT streak (5 games): +boom adjustment
- Favorable matchup: TB defense allows 19.4 FPG to QBs

RB Analysis

Bucky Irving (TB vs ARI, Sun 1:00 PM)

  • ESPN Projection: 11.8 pts
  • LLM Projection: 15.3 pts (MEDIUM confidence)
  • XGBoost: 9.5% boom, 54.5% bust
  • Recommendation: START with caution - High bust risk

LLM Reasoning:
- Returning from 7-game injury absence (subluxated shoulder + foot sprain)
- Arizona allows 142 rushing yards per game (last 3 weeks)
- Arizona ranked 21st DVOA vs rush
- May be eased back into action (expect 13-15 touches)
- Pre-injury: Scored 13.9+ PPR in all 4 starts

Bust Risk:
- Injury return limits volume
- Committee with Rachaad White possible

Tyjae Spears (TEN vs JAX, Sun 1:00 PM)

  • ESPN Projection: 9.9 pts
  • LLM Projection: 8.0 pts (LOW confidence)
  • XGBoost: 13.2% boom, 33.1% bust
  • Recommendation: START - Best available option

LLM Reasoning:
- 50% snap share split with Tony Pollard
- Jacksonville favored by 6.5 points
- Light rain expected (may help run game)
- Floor play only, limited upside

WR Analysis

Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA vs MIN, Sun 4:05 PM)

  • ESPN Projection: 21.9 pts
  • LLM Projection: 34.3 pts (HIGH confidence)
  • XGBoost: 50.0% boom, 14.0% bust
  • Recommendation: MUST-START - Best receiver in fantasy

LLM Reasoning:
- WR1 overall for Week 13 (expert consensus)
- 1,313 receiving yards (on pace for 2,030 - record pace)
- 11 consecutive games with 75+ receiving yards
- 35% target share (elite volume)
- Minnesota starting 3rd string QB Max Brosmer
- Vegas: SEA -11.5, implied team total 26.5 (source)

Props:
- Receiving yards O/U: 105.5
- Anytime TD: -115

Rashee Rice (KC @ DAL, Thu 4:30 PM)

  • ESPN Projection: 18.1 pts
  • LLM Projection: 25.9 pts (HIGH confidence)
  • XGBoost: 13.2% boom, 27.0% bust
  • Recommendation: START - Elite matchup

LLM Reasoning:
- Dallas allows MOST fantasy points to WRs (30th ranked defense)
- 18 WR touchdowns allowed by Dallas (NFL worst)
- 20%+ target share in every game this season
- Season-high 141 yards in Week 12
- Leads KC in red zone targets (13)
- Zone coverage killer (+42% boost vs zone)

Props:
- Receiving yards O/U: 77.5
- Anytime TD: -120

Tetairoa McMillan (CAR vs LAR, Sun 1:00 PM)

  • ESPN Projection: 13.2 pts
  • LLM Projection: 16.5 pts (MEDIUM confidence)
  • XGBoost: 21.1% boom, 18.1% bust
  • Recommendation: START at FLEX - CAR WR1 with high volume

LLM Reasoning:
- CAR WR1 as a rookie (748 yds, 54 rec through 11 games)
- 22% target share with increasing trend
- Week 11 breakout: 8 rec, 130 yds, 2 TDs (33 PPR pts)
- Building chemistry with Bryce Young
- LAR defense allows 15th most to WRs

Concerns:
- CAR 10-pt underdog limits ceiling
- Implied team total only 17.25 pts
- Tough matchup vs LAR pass rush

TE Analysis

Juwan Johnson (NO @ MIA, Sun 1:00 PM)

  • ESPN Projection: 8.7 pts
  • LLM Projection: 14.0 pts (MEDIUM confidence)
  • XGBoost: 21.0% boom, 25.0% bust
  • Recommendation: START - Hot streak + favorable matchup

LLM Reasoning:
- 5 consecutive games with 10+ fantasy points
- Miami allows 4th-6th most fantasy points to TEs
- Only 24% rostered (streaming gem)
- 2nd pass-catching option for Saints
- Low team total (17.75 implied) limits ceiling

Props:
- Receiving yards O/U: 44.5

Position Player Team Status ESPN LLM XGB Boom/Bust Notes
QB Jordan Love GB BENCH 15.7 17.7 28.4%/20.9% Thanksgiving dome game, shootout potential
WR Marvin Harrison Jr. ARI QUESTIONABLE 13.7 10.6 25.7%/18.2% Appendicitis surgery Nov 10, check status
WR Jameson Williams DET BENCH 11.8 11.5 20.6%/20.3% Boom/bust, Thanksgiving game
WR Keenan Allen LAC BENCH 12.0 14.3 25.3%/24.3% Consistent, LAC heavy run game
RB Omarion Hampton LAC IR 12.3 15.4 8.3%/54.4% Injured - unavailable
RB Emanuel Wilson GB BENCH 5.6 8.5 10.7%/34.2% Backup role
TE Evan Engram DEN BENCH 8.1 6.5 25.0%/25.6% Adjusting to new system

Monte Carlo Projection Report

Week 13 | Generated: 2025-11-28 20:59

Matchup Summary

80.6%

Win Probability

+28.6
Expected Margin
160.6
My Team EV
132.4
Opponent EV
33.2
Margin Std Dev

Margin Distribution (80% Range)

Floor: -14.3 pts | Median: +29.0 pts | Ceiling: +71.4 pts

Margin Distribution

Opponent Bench Substitution Analysis

When opponent starters are injured, the system models likely bench substitutions to provide more accurate win probability estimates.

Position Injured Starter Status Proj Pts Replacement Repl Proj
QB Baker Mayfield QUESTIONABLE 16.7 Shedeur Sanders 5.9

Opponent Lineup Scenarios

Win probability weighted across multiple injury scenarios.

Scenario Probability Opp Total EV Win Prob Expected Margin
All injured starters play 85.0% 132.4 80.2% +28.4
All injured starters out 15.0% 125.3 86.2% +35.4

My Team

Key: Click any row to view full histogram. ↑ = P(>15pts) | ↓ = P(<5pts)

Starters

Player Pos EV Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Jacoby Brissett LOW QB 23.8 21.6-29.1 ↑95% ↓5% Jacoby Brissett
Bucky Irving HIGH RB 15.3 0.0-25.5 ↑52% ↓15% Bucky Irving
Tyjae Spears HIGH RB 8.0 1.7-15.8 ↑13% ↓14% Tyjae Spears
Jaxon Smith-Njigba LOW WR 34.3 22.4-45.3 ↑99% ↓0% Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Tetairoa McMillan HIGH WR 19.1 8.1-33.6 ↑50% ↓0% Tetairoa McMillan
Rashee Rice LOW WR 25.9 21.2-30.1 ↑95% ↓0% Rashee Rice
Juwan Johnson MED TE 14.0 4.1-21.3 ↑42% ↓13% Juwan Johnson
Rams D/ST HIGH D/ST 8.9 3.0-18.5 ↑14% ↓18% Rams D/ST
Jason Myers MED K 11.5 7.4-16.2 ↑24% ↓7% Jason Myers

Bench

Player Pos EV Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Jordan Love MED QB 17.7 8.9-27.2 ↑60% ↓0% Jordan Love
Omarion Hampton HIGH RB 15.4 4.1-27.1 ↑41% ↓17% Omarion Hampton
Emanuel Wilson HIGH RB 8.5 1.0-24.7 ↑11% ↓48% Emanuel Wilson
Marvin Harrison Jr. HIGH WR 10.6 0.0-20.9 ↑36% ↓22% Marvin Harrison Jr.
Jameson Williams HIGH WR 11.5 1.1-22.3 ↑51% ↓38% Jameson Williams
Keenan Allen HIGH WR 14.3 5.8-27.0 ↑50% ↓4% Keenan Allen
Evan Engram HIGH TE 6.5 0.0-12.3 ↑1% ↓35% Evan Engram

Opponent

Starters

Player Pos EV Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Baker Mayfield HIGH QB 13.2 0.0-23.2 ↑50% ↓29% Baker Mayfield
Jahmyr Gibbs HIGH RB 28.6 10.5-40.5 ↑76% ↓1% Jahmyr Gibbs
Rico Dowdle HIGH RB 14.5 3.4-31.9 ↑30% ↓29% Rico Dowdle
DK Metcalf MED WR 12.5 5.5-22.6 ↑29% ↓9% DK Metcalf
Rome Odunze HIGH WR 13.2 2.8-28.7 ↑49% ↓27% Rome Odunze
Michael Wilson HIGH WR 14.9 3.3-31.2 ↑50% ↓23% Michael Wilson
Trey McBride MED TE 19.4 11.5-28.5 ↑65% ↓0% Trey McBride
Jaguars D/ST HIGH D/ST 7.0 0.3-13.3 ↑1% ↓35% Jaguars D/ST
Harrison Butker MED K 9.3 4.8-14.2 ↑8% ↓12% Harrison Butker

Bench

Player Pos EV Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Shedeur Sanders HIGH QB 6.0 0.5-12.8 ↑1% ↓47% Shedeur Sanders
Kareem Hunt HIGH RB 10.4 3.1-19.0 ↑28% ↓34% Kareem Hunt
Devin Neal HIGH RB 4.8 0.6-10.8 ↑0% ↓52% Devin Neal
Quentin Johnston HIGH WR 12.2 0.0-24.3 ↑31% ↓21% Quentin Johnston
Jordan Addison HIGH WR 11.1 0.0-21.2 ↑22% ↓13% Jordan Addison
Romeo Doubs HIGH WR 11.0 2.9-20.7 ↑14% ↓24% Romeo Doubs
Mason Taylor HIGH TE 8.9 2.0-16.0 ↑13% ↓37% Mason Taylor

Scenario Details

Player Position BOOM MODERATE BUST EV
Bucky Irving RB 21% @ 25.5 21% @ 18.1 42% @ 14.2 15.3
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR 44% @ 44.5 51% @ 27.3 5% @ 15.6 34.3
Tetairoa McMillan WR 35% @ 33.0 15% @ 16.9 50% @ 10.1 19.1
Rashee Rice WR 60% @ 29.1 35% @ 22.3 5% @ 11.8 25.9
Tyjae Spears RB 14% @ 16.3 71% @ 7.6 14% @ 1.3 8.0
Jason Myers K 46% @ 15.1 45% @ 9.2 9% @ 4.2 11.5
Juwan Johnson TE 24% @ 21.1 59% @ 13.9 17% @ 4.0 14.0
Jacoby Brissett QB 33% @ 28.6 62% @ 23.1 5% @ 0.2 23.8
Rams D/ST D/ST 10% @ 20.0 81% @ 8.8 9% @ -2.0 8.9

Vegas Lines Summary

Game Spread Total Implied Team Totals
KC @ DAL (Thu) KC -3.5 52.5 KC 28.0, DAL 24.5
GB @ DET (Thu) DET -2.5 48.5 DET 25.5, GB 23.0
ARI @ TB TB -3.0 43.5 TB 23.25, ARI 20.25
SEA vs MIN SEA -11.5 41.5 SEA 26.5, MIN 15.0
NO @ MIA MIA -6.0 41.5 MIA 23.75, NO 17.75
JAX @ TEN JAX -6.5 42.0 JAX 24.25, TEN 17.75
LAR @ CAR LAR -10.0 44.5 LAR 27.25, CAR 17.25
LAC vs LV LAC -8.5 40.5 LAC 24.5, LV 16.0

Opponent Analysis

Opponent Projected Total: 132.4 pts
Key Injuries: Baker Mayfield (QUESTIONABLE - shoulder)

If Baker Mayfield sits, Shedeur Sanders would start (6.0 EV vs 17+ for Mayfield).

Bench Substitution Scenario:
- Baker Mayfield OUT (15% probability): Sanders subs in (-11 pt swing)

Waiver Wire Notes

Free Agents to Monitor:
- Hunter Henry (TE, NE) - Proj 11.2, strong TE option
- Terry McLaurin (WR, WSH) - Proj 11.0, Daniels returning
- Isiah Pacheco (RB, KC) - Proj 9.7, may return from injury

Historical Accuracy Context

Your Team's ESPN Projection Accuracy (Weeks 1-12):
- Overall MAE: 4.45 pts
- QB Bias: -2.00 pts (ESPN under-projects QBs)
- RB R-squared: 0.541 (most reliable)
- WR R-squared: 0.498 (reliable)

ESPN Projection Accuracy

projection_accuracy_overall.png projection_accuracy_by_position.png projection_error_distribution.png projection_accuracy_trend.png league_team_mae_ranking.png league_bias_heatmap.png league_positional_scatter.png

XGBoost Boom/Bust Calibration

xgb_boom_calibration.png xgb_bust_calibration.png xgb_position_calibration.png xgb_weekly_brier_trend.png xgb_feature_importance.png

LLM vs ESPN Comparison

llm_vs_espn_scatter_comparison.png llm_weekly_winners.png llm_cumulative_improvement.png llm_position_advantage.png llm_confidence_correlation.png